Martingale vs Anti-Martingale vs fixed auto-cashout at 1.20x

Martingale vs Anti-Martingale vs a fixed 1.20x auto cash out: fixed 1.20x gives the smoothest ride, Martingale posts the best top-end sessions and Anti-Martingale caps every losing cycle at one base bet. This is the head-to-head comparison promised in our crash strategy pillar. We played all three at a 1.20x auto cash out with the same £500 bankroll and £10 base bet, over 10,000 simulated sessions each.

Why 1.20x?

1.20x is one of the most-searched targets because it “almost always” lands. At 97% RTP:

• P(reach 1.20x) = 0.97 ÷ 1.2 = 80.8%
• Profit per win: £2 on a £10 bet
• Loss per miss: £10

So you need five wins to cover each loss, and five wins in a row at 80.8% happen only about 34% of the time.

The three systems

• Fixed: bet £10 every round.
• Martingale: after a loss, multiply the bet so one win recovers the loss. At 1.20x pure doubling doesn’t recover the loss (a £20 bet only wins £4), so true 1.20x Martingale needs ×6 escalation. Our simulator uses classic doubling, which recovers only partly at low targets. That makes the “recovery” weaker than people expect.
• Anti-Martingale: after a win, the next bet is the full £12 returned; reset after three wins or any loss.

Results

System (1.20x, 100 rounds)	Median	10th pct	90th pct	Bust rate
Fixed	£472	£412	£532	0%
Martingale (doubling)	£472	£368	£542	0.5%
Anti-Martingale (3-win cap)	£465	£388	£535	0%

Crash Game Guide simulator, 10,000 sessions each, 97% RTP, fixed seed. Run your own above or in the simulator.

What the numbers say

1. The typical session lands in the same place because each strategy bets a similar total at the same 97% RTP. Your choice is about how the session feels.
2. Martingale stretches both ends. Its best sessions beat flat betting (£542 vs £532), its rough ones dip lower (£368 vs £412), and a 0.5% bust rate is the price of that upside.
3. Anti-Martingale keeps losses capped at one base bet per cycle. At 1.20x the streak bonus is modest (three wins grow a £10 stake to £17.28), so it shines more at 2x and above.

Verdict

At 1.20x, flat betting is the smoothest default and a great place to start. Martingale gives you the best top-end sessions: pair it with a stop loss so a rare long run of reds can’t take the whole bankroll. Want upside with every loss capped? Anti-Martingale is your pick. Read the deep dives on Martingale, Anti-Martingale and fixed cash out targets.