Auto-Cashout Probability Calculator for Crash Games

Auto cash out win chance calculator

Win chance

48.5%

Long-run return per Ksh 100.00 bet

-Ksh 3.00

Win rate needed to break even

50.0%

Common targets (3.0%)

Target	Win chance	About 1 in	Long-run return per Ksh 100.00 bet
1.20x	80.8%	1.24	-Ksh 3.00
1.50x	64.7%	1.55	-Ksh 3.00
2.00x	48.5%	2.06	-Ksh 3.00
3.00x	32.3%	3.09	-Ksh 3.00
5.00x	19.4%	5.15	-Ksh 3.00
10.00x	9.70%	10	-Ksh 3.00
100x	0.97%	103	-Ksh 3.00

This crash game probability calculator shows your win chance at any target in one click, plus the payout and the win rate you need at each multiplier.

Kenyan edition: results show in Kenyan shillings (KES). A good starting point is a KSh 5,000 bankroll with KSh 100 bets, the same 2% ratio our guides use. Ready for a real session? See M-Pesa deposits and the best crash games in Kenya.

The formula

For a crash game with RTP r, your win chance at target multiplier x is:

Win chance at x ≈ r ÷ x

Multiply the win chance by the payout and you get the RTP back: r ÷ x × x = r. It’s the same for every target. A low target wins more often and pays less, a high target wins less often and pays more. Pick the ride you like.

Break-even win rate

To break even when cashing out at x, you need to win 1 ÷ x of your rounds. The calculator shows this next to your real win chance, so you can see exactly where each target sits.

Frequently asked questions

What is the chance of reaching 2x in a crash game?

At 97% RTP, about 48.5%. At 99% RTP, about 49.5%.

What win rate do I need at 1.5x to break even?

You need to win 1 ÷ 1.5 = 66.7% of rounds. The game's actual hit rate at 1.5x at 97% RTP is about 64.7%, and that small gap is the 3% the game keeps.