Paroli vs D'Alembert: Which Crash Strategy Wins? (10M-Round Test)
By Daniel Foster · ✓ Fact-checked by Alex Morgan · Last updated 2 November 2026
Verdict: Paroli wins. In our 10-million-round test it went bust in 31.7% of sessions vs 93.7% for D'Alembert, and finished in profit 19.6% of the time vs 6.1%. Median bankroll after 1,000 rounds: Ksh 4,800 vs Ksh 0 (from Ksh 10,000).
Part of our How to win crash games: the best strategies, tested in shillings. Full guides: Paroli and D'Alembert. Every number below comes from the same simulation: 10,000 sessions of 1,000 rounds, a Ksh 10,000 bankroll and Ksh 100 base bet, 97% RTP.
Paroli vs D'Alembert: the numbers
| Metric | Paroli | D'Alembert |
|---|---|---|
| Went bust | 31.7% | 93.7% |
| Median final bankroll | Ksh 4,800 | Ksh 0 |
| Worst 10% / best 10% | Ksh 0 / Ksh 12,800 | Ksh 0 / Ksh 0 |
| Sessions in profit | 19.6% | 6.1% |
| Hit rate (rounds won) | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Average session length (rounds) | 899 | 296 |
| Median max drawdown | Ksh 9,600 | Ksh 15,300 |
| Biggest single-round return | Ksh 400 | Ksh 3,400 |
How the bankroll moves
How Paroli works
Paroli doubles after a win at 2x and banks the run after three straight wins (or resets on a loss): your own winnings fund the bigger bets.
Example: Ksh 100 wins at 2x, you bet Ksh 200, then Ksh 400; three wins in a row and you bank Ksh 800 profit, then start again at Ksh 100.
How D'Alembert works
D'Alembert adds one base bet after a loss and removes one after a win, always cashing out at 2x: a gentle, slow progression.
Example: Ksh 100 loses, the next bet is Ksh 200; it wins, so you drop back to Ksh 100.
Which one should you pick?
- Pick Paroli if you like pressing a winning run with house money and keeping losses small.
- Pick D'Alembert if you want a progression that never escalates fast.
Try both in the simulator
Run the exact study settings yourself, in your currency, and change anything you like.
Test them on these crash games
Frequently asked questions
Which is better, Paroli or D'Alembert?
In our 10M-round test, Paroli went bust less often (31.7% vs 93.7%). Neither changes the 97% RTP.
How often does Paroli go bust?
31.7% of 1,000-round sessions ran out of money with a 100-bet bankroll.
How often does D'Alembert go bust?
93.7% of 1,000-round sessions ran out of money with a 100-bet bankroll.
Which wins more rounds?
Paroli won 48.5% of rounds and D'Alembert won 48.5%. Win rate isn't profit: the size of each win matters too.
Can Paroli or D'Alembert beat the house edge?
No. Both play the same 97% RTP game; they only change how your bankroll swings.
Which is better for a small budget?
The one with the lower bust rate: Paroli, at 31.7% in our test. Set a stop-loss either way.
Sources
- Crash Game Guide: 10-million-round crash simulation study (checked 2 November 2026)
- Study results (CSV, CC BY 4.0) (checked 2 November 2026)
Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
✓ Fact-checked by Alex Morgan (Casino & Crash Game Reviewer)
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