D'Alembert vs Fibonacci: Which Crash Strategy Wins? (10M-Round Test)
By Daniel Foster · ✓ Fact-checked by Alex Morgan · Last updated 2 November 2026
Verdict: Fibonacci wins. In our 10-million-round test it went bust in 76.8% of sessions vs 93.7% for D'Alembert, and finished in profit 22.9% of the time vs 6.1%. Median bankroll after 1,000 rounds: ₦0 vs ₦0 (from ₦100,000).
Part of our How to Win Crash Games in Nigeria: Odds, Strategies and Naira Examples. Full guides: D'Alembert and Fibonacci. Every number below comes from the same simulation: 10,000 sessions of 1,000 rounds, a ₦100,000 bankroll and ₦1,000 base bet, 97% RTP.
D'Alembert vs Fibonacci: the numbers
| Metric | D'Alembert | Fibonacci |
|---|---|---|
| Went bust | 93.7% | 76.8% |
| Median final bankroll | ₦0 | ₦0 |
| Worst 10% / best 10% | ₦0 / ₦0 | ₦0 / ₦276,000 |
| Sessions in profit | 6.1% | 22.9% |
| Hit rate (rounds won) | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Average session length (rounds) | 296 | 479 |
| Median max drawdown | ₦153,000 | ₦134,000 |
| Biggest single-round return | ₦34,000 | ₦89,000 |
How the bankroll moves
How D'Alembert works
D'Alembert adds one base bet after a loss and removes one after a win, always cashing out at 2x: a gentle, slow progression.
Example: ₦1,000 loses, the next bet is ₦2,000; it wins, so you drop back to ₦1,000.
How Fibonacci works
Fibonacci moves one step up the 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8… sequence after a loss and two steps back after a win, cashing out at 2x.
Example: bets go ₦1,000, ₦1,000, ₦2,000, ₦3,000 after losses; a win moves you two steps back down.
Which one should you pick?
- Pick D'Alembert if you want a progression that never escalates fast.
- Pick Fibonacci if you like a structured recovery plan with a steeper climb than D'Alembert.
Try both in the simulator
Run the exact study settings yourself, in your currency, and change anything you like.
Test them on these crash games
Frequently asked questions
Which is better, D'Alembert or Fibonacci?
In our 10M-round test, Fibonacci went bust less often (76.8% vs 93.7%). Neither changes the 97% RTP.
How often does D'Alembert go bust?
93.7% of 1,000-round sessions ran out of money with a 100-bet bankroll.
How often does Fibonacci go bust?
76.8% of 1,000-round sessions ran out of money with a 100-bet bankroll.
Which wins more rounds?
D'Alembert won 48.5% of rounds and Fibonacci won 48.5%. Win rate isn't profit: the size of each win matters too.
Can D'Alembert or Fibonacci beat the house edge?
No. Both play the same 97% RTP game; they only change how your bankroll swings.
Which is better for a small budget?
The one with the lower bust rate: Fibonacci, at 76.8% in our test. Set a stop-loss either way.
Sources
- Crash Game Guide: 10-million-round crash simulation study (checked 2 November 2026)
- Study results (CSV, CC BY 4.0) (checked 2 November 2026)
Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
✓ Fact-checked by Alex Morgan (Casino & Crash Game Reviewer)
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