Kelly criterion in gambling: proportional betting for crash games
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The Kelly criterion in gambling tells you how much of your bankroll to bet based on your edge, and for crash games its honest answer is surprising: with a 97% RTP there’s no positive edge, so pure Kelly says bet zero. The good news is the idea underneath, proportional betting, is one of the best bankroll tools you can use. Bet a fixed percentage of your current balance, say 2%, and your stakes shrink in cold runs and grow in hot ones automatically. It’s the safest system in our Aviator game tricks toolbox.
Kelly in one line
Kelly bet = edge ÷ odds. At 2x, odds are 1 to 1 and your edge is 0.97 × 2 − 1 = −3%. Negative edge means a Kelly bet of zero. On a positive-edge game, say a promo that pushes return above 100%, Kelly would tell you to bet more. Without one, use the proportional version below.
Proportional betting in rupees
At 2% of balance:
| Balance | Next bet |
|---|---|
| ₹5,000 | ₹100 |
| ₹4,000 | ₹80 |
| ₹6,000 | ₹120 |
| ₹2,500 | ₹50 |
What the simulator says
1,000 sessions of 100 rounds at 2% of balance, starting at ₹5,000, 2x and 97% RTP: median ₹4,709, best 10% above ₹5,986, worst 10% below ₹3,704, and no busted sessions. That’s almost exactly flat betting, with an extra cushion when you’re running cold. Compare everything in best betting system for crash games.
Kelly vs progressions
Martingale and Fibonacci raise stakes when you lose; proportional betting lowers them. That’s why it’s so hard to bust. See the difference in martingale vs fibonacci.
Try it
Pick “Proportional” in the simulator below, practise in our free crash game, then play Aviator game India at one of our crash game casinos in India.
Pro tip: round your 2% to the nearest ₹10. Small, clean numbers are easier to stick to.
Strategy simulator
- Median final bankroll
- Unlucky (10th percentile)
- Lucky (90th percentile)
- Chance of going bust
- Median max drawdown
- Average rounds played
Example: 1000 sessions of 100 rounds, bankroll ₹5,000, base bet ₹100, target 2x, 3% edge
| Strategy | Median final bankroll | Unlucky (10th percentile) | Lucky (90th percentile) | Chance of going bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proportional (Kelly-style) | ₹4,709 | ₹3,704 | ₹5,986 | 0.0% |
| Fixed bet | ₹4,800 | ₹3,600 | ₹6,000 | 0.0% |
Run it a few times with different settings to find the approach that fits your bankroll and playing style.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Kelly criterion in gambling?
A formula that sets your bet as a fraction of your bankroll based on your edge. With a positive edge it maximises long-run growth.
Does the Kelly criterion work for crash games?
Crash games return about 97%, so there's no positive edge and pure Kelly says stake zero. The proportional idea behind it is still a great bankroll tool.
What is proportional betting?
Always betting the same percentage of your current balance, for example 2%. Stakes shrink in cold runs and grow in hot ones.
Can proportional betting bust?
It's very hard to bust because stakes shrink with your balance. In our simulator, no session out of 1,000 ran out.
What percentage should I bet?
1–2% of your current balance is a solid range.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
Fact-checked by Alex Morgan
Published · Updated
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