Martingale vs D'Alembert in crash games
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Martingale vs D’Alembert: Martingale doubles your stake after every loss, while D’Alembert climbs in smaller steps. Martingale recovers a losing run with one win but needs deep pockets; D’Alembert recovers more slowly and keeps stakes lower. Neither changes your win chance at 2x (48.5%). Here is how they compare in a crash game, with KSh 100 units. Part of our crash game strategy guide.
The rules side by side
| Martingale | D’Alembert | |
|---|---|---|
| After a loss | Double the stake | Add one unit |
| After a win | Back to one unit | Remove one unit |
| Four losses in a row | KSh 100, KSh 200, KSh 400, KSh 800 | KSh 100, KSh 200, KSh 300, KSh 400 |
D’Alembert example: KSh 100 loses → KSh 200 loses → KSh 300 wins → KSh 200 wins → KSh 100. Full details in the Martingale strategy guide and the D’Alembert strategy guide.
Simulator results
Both at a 2x auto cash out, KSh 5,000 budget, 100 rounds, 1,000 sessions:
| System | Typical end | Middle 80% | Ran out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | KSh 4,600 | KSh 0–KSh 10,200 | 46.5% |
| D’Alembert | KSh 3,100 | KSh 0–KSh 10,100 | 44.9% |
Martingale gives more sessions a small win but more sessions a full stop. D’Alembert runs out less often. Test both in the crash strategy simulator.
Playing betting systems in Kenya
Kenyan pilots run this plan the same way on Betika, SportPesa, Odibets or a partner casino, because the maths is identical everywhere. Top up with M-Pesa (steps in our Aviator M-Pesa guide), keep stakes in round shillings such as KSh 50, KSh 100 or KSh 200 so tracking is easy, and treat rain free bets as a bonus on top of your budget, not part of it. More local tips in the Betika Aviator guide.
Which should you pick?
- Pick Martingale if you want quick recoveries and keep the base stake tiny.
- Pick D’Alembert if you prefer slower, smaller steps.
- Pick neither if you want the calmest ride: flat bets with a fixed auto cash out.
Our best betting system for crash games ranks every option. Try your pick on the Aviator game at one of our partner casinos.
Pro tip: cap any progression at a stake you set in advance, then reset. It keeps a cold run from taking the whole session.
Strategy simulator
- Median final bankroll
- Unlucky (10th percentile)
- Lucky (90th percentile)
- Chance of going bust
- Median max drawdown
- Average rounds played
Example: 1000 sessions of 100 rounds, bankroll Ksh 5,000, base bet Ksh 100, target 2x, 3% edge
| Strategy | Median final bankroll | Unlucky (10th percentile) | Lucky (90th percentile) | Chance of going bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Alembert | Ksh 3,100 | Ksh 0 | Ksh 10,100 | 44.9% |
| Fixed bet | Ksh 4,800 | Ksh 3,600 | Ksh 6,000 | 0.0% |
Run it a few times with different settings to find the approach that fits your bankroll and playing style.
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Frequently asked questions
Is Martingale or D'Alembert better for crash games?
D'Alembert uses smaller steps and in our simulation ran out of budget in 44.9% of sessions against 46.5% for Martingale. Martingale recovers faster.
What is the difference between Martingale and D'Alembert?
Martingale doubles after a loss; D'Alembert: raise your stake by one unit after a loss and lower it by one unit after a win (never below one unit).
Which system wins more often?
Both use the same 2x win chance per round. They differ in how stakes move, not in how often you win.
Can I use these systems in Aviator?
Yes, with auto cash out at 2x and manual stake changes or an auto bet script where available.
What budget do I need?
At least 50 units, for example KSh 5,000 with a KSh 100 unit; Martingale needs the most.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
Fact-checked by Alex Morgan
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